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Business

Nike Is Outselling Adidas at the World Cup. Investors Still Aren't Convinced.

In the battle for fans' wallets, Nike is winning one early US metric. In the battle for investors' confidence, Adidas still has the cleaner story.

Market MunchiesΒ·Jun 29, 2026Β·4 min read
Nike Is Outselling Adidas at the World Cup

The World Cup is in full swing across North America, and Nike has an early merchandise win β€” at least in the United States.

In the first two weeks of the tournament, roughly 28% of Nike's World Cup merchandise sold out in the US, compared with just 7% for Adidas, according to data from LSEG and Centric Market Intelligence. Nike is also commanding a price premium: its World Cup jerseys and shirts average $125, compared with $95 for Adidas. That sell-through came without heavy discounting β€” exactly the kind of signal Nike needs right now.

Nike is also dominating the conversation. LSEG says the brand accounts for around 80% of news and social media mentions between the two rivals during the tournament. It has flooded the market with more than 800 World Cup products across 18 national teams, while Adidas offers more than 600 products across 27 countries. Both brands roughly doubled their product offerings versus the 2022 World Cup.

But the scoreboard looks different when you switch from merchandise buzz to investor confidence.

Adidas has the tournament infrastructure

Adidas enters the tournament with structural advantages that the US sell-through data does not fully capture.

As the official FIFA World Cup sponsor and supplier of the tournament's match ball, it has constant global visibility baked into every broadcast and every kickoff. Reuters reports Adidas sponsors 14 national teams to Nike's 12, including Argentina, Spain, Mexico, and Germany. JD Sports said Mexico's Adidas-supplied jersey was its best-selling team kit during the week beginning June 15.

And while Nike leads in US sell-through, Adidas is winning the broader brand battle. LSEG's MarketPsych Analytics data shows stronger trust scores and more positive fan sentiment for Adidas throughout the opening weeks, globally.

Adidas has the investor setup too

The financial picture is just as clear.

LSEG projects Adidas will deliver 6.8% revenue growth and 22.2% earnings growth across the World Cup-related quarters. Nike, by contrast, is expected to report weaker revenue and earnings when it releases fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, June 30. Nike's stock is down more than 30% this year, while Adidas has moved in the opposite direction β€” supported by strong buy-side sentiment, improving fundamentals, and a consistent earnings trajectory.

That is the real split. Nike may be getting the hotter early US merchandise read. Adidas still has the cleaner financial story.

Why the merch win may not move the needle for Nike

The math is straightforward. World Cup jersey sales are commercially visible but represent a small slice of Nike's enormous global business. The core turnaround β€” rebuilding wholesale relationships, stabilizing China sales, and recovering margins β€” is what investors are actually watching. RBC Capital Markets downgraded Nike the day before the World Cup opened, a sign that analysts are not counting on tournament sales to solve structural problems.

Nike's CEO Elliott Hill has framed the World Cup as a catalyst for the broader brand reset, launching a global "Rip the Script" marketing campaign alongside new product launches and expanded distribution. The strong US merchandise numbers are a genuine bright spot. But a hot jersey sell-through is not a substitute for the fundamental recovery the stock market is waiting to see.

Nike reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, June 30. The World Cup may help the brand story, but investors will be focused on China, wholesale recovery, margins, and whether the turnaround is actually gaining traction.

The diverging stock stories

The two companies' share prices tell the story plainly. Nike's stock is down more than 30% this year, weighed down by multiple quarters of revenue declines, margin pressure, and a China business that has been contracting for nearly two years. Adidas has moved in the opposite direction, supported by strong buy-side sentiment and improving fundamentals.

Adidas has the official sponsorship, the stronger financial setup, and better global sentiment. Nike has the hotter early US sell-through read. For investors, those are not the same thing β€” and the stock prices reflect exactly that distinction.

What to watch

  • Nike's June 30 earnings: China revenue trajectory, North American wholesale trends, margins, and management's turnaround commentary will matter far more than World Cup sell-through data. This is the catalyst investors care about most.
  • Adidas's second-quarter results: Watch for any commentary on how the World Cup is tracking against the projected 6.8% revenue growth figure. Adidas reports in late July.
  • Knockout rounds: The biggest national teams often dominate attention later in the tournament. Watch whether Adidas's global sentiment advantage widens as the competition narrows.
  • Germany's final World Cup in Adidas kits: Nike takes over as Germany's kit supplier in 2027, ending one of Adidas's most iconic soccer partnerships. Watch for any consumer signals as that handoff approaches.

The bottom line

Nike has a real World Cup bright spot, and that matters for a brand working hard to rebuild its image. But Adidas has the stronger global tournament setup and the cleaner earnings trajectory. Those are both true at the same time β€” and right now, investors are rewarding the second one.

For those watching Tuesday's earnings, the World Cup is context, not the story. What matters is whether the turnaround is working β€” and whether the underlying business is healing fast enough to justify a stock that has spent most of the year going in the wrong direction.

Sources