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AI

OpenAI May Wait Until 2027 to Go Public. The Companies Betting on It Can't.

A single report about an IPO delay just rippled through SoftBank, Oracle, and CoreWeave β€” a reminder of how many bets have been placed on an AI lab whose profitability remains unproven.

Market MunchiesΒ·Jun 26, 2026Β·5 min read
OpenAI May Wait Until 2027 to Go Public

For months, OpenAI's stock market debut had felt like an inevitable event β€” a matter of when, not whether. On Thursday night, the New York Times reported it might be when in 2027, not 2026. By Friday morning, the implications were moving markets from Tokyo to London.

The report, citing three people involved in the company's internal deliberations, said OpenAI is leaning toward pushing its IPO back to next year. Advisers have cautioned that volatile tech stocks and growing questions about whether AI companies can justify enormous valuations may dampen investor demand. CEO Sam Altman has reportedly rejected any compromise on the valuation target β€” pushing toward a $1 trillion figure, a steep climb from private-market valuations reported earlier this year in the roughly $730 billion to $852 billion range.

For now, the reporting suggests OpenAI would rather wait than accept a lower public valuation.

Why an IPO delay matters

An OpenAI IPO is not just a liquidity event for its investors. It is the market's most anticipated price-discovery moment for the AI boom itself β€” a public benchmark for what the company at the center of the entire trade is actually worth. A delay means investors, lenders, and infrastructure partners that need liquidity, collateral, or validation tied to OpenAI have to wait longer than they planned. It also removes a public market anchor from a web of private-market bets that are currently priced on faith and reported funding rounds rather than a live stock price.

Who feels it most

SoftBank is the clearest pressure point. The Japanese conglomerate has committed tens of billions to OpenAI and holds a roughly 13% stake, with total commitments expected to reach approximately $65 billion by October.

It is also carrying significant financing exposure. SoftBank secured a $40 billion bridge loan tied to its OpenAI investments that comes due in March 2027. It has also faced reported hesitation from lenders over a separate margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake, with plans reportedly scaled back from $10 billion to as little as $6 billion amid questions about pricing a private-company position with no public market valuation.

That is the bind an IPO delay creates: SoftBank most needs a public price precisely when private financing around that position is harder to arrange. A listing would give investors a clean market benchmark, narrow the conglomerate discount that has long weighed on SoftBank's stock, and give lenders something concrete to lend against. Delay does all of the opposite.

SoftBank fell as much as 13% Friday, its steepest decline since August 2024. Oracle fell roughly 1.5% and CoreWeave declined about 1.9%, both treated by the market as OpenAI proxies even though each has a broader business. Oracle has a major data center agreement as part of the broader Stargate AI infrastructure initiative, while CoreWeave has a multi-year partnership with OpenAI worth up to $22 billion. When confidence in OpenAI's trajectory dims, the companies most visibly tied to it move accordingly.

The SpaceX shadow

The timing debate also has a fresh cautionary tale. SpaceX completed a record-setting IPO earlier this month, raising about $75 billion at a roughly $1.75 trillion valuation. The stock initially surged, then fell sharply from its early peak β€” a vivid reminder that even the most anticipated listings can wobble when market conditions shift. OpenAI's advisers are reportedly factoring that trajectory into their recommendations. A debut into a weak tape at a lower valuation than Altman wants would be difficult to walk back.

OpenAI's growth story remains enormous. Reported revenue is running at roughly $2 billion per month, the company has already filed confidentially with US securities regulators, and major banks are reportedly advising on the offering. The question is purely one of price and timing β€” and the current market is not offering the price OpenAI wants.

The bull case

Not everyone is rattled. Masayoshi Son used SoftBank's annual shareholder meeting Friday to mount a forceful defense of the long-term AI thesis, dismissing talk of a bubble as a failure to understand the technology's potential. He argued AI is still in its infancy and pledged to keep building SoftBank's position around OpenAI, robotics, data centers, and energy. The fair value of SoftBank's OpenAI investment has more than doubled relative to its cost, even before any public market pricing. For believers, a 2027 listing at $1 trillion is simply a better outcome than a 2026 listing at $800 billion.

What to watch

  • OpenAI's official response: The company has not confirmed or denied the NYT report. Watch for any statement from Altman or CFO Sarah Friar β€” who reportedly told associates the company is targeting a 2027 listing β€” that clarifies the timeline.
  • SoftBank's financing: The $40 billion bridge loan due March 2027 is the most pressing near-term pressure point. Watch for any refinancing announcements that would ease the timeline pressure.
  • AI lab IPO pipeline: If OpenAI delays, it changes how investors read the rest of the AI listing calendar. Anthropic has already filed confidentially for a US IPO. Watch whether other private AI labs signal similar timing reconsiderations.
  • AI infrastructure stocks: Oracle, CoreWeave, and Arm all carry significant OpenAI exposure. Watch their stock trajectories as a real-time read on how much of the AI buildout narrative depends on OpenAI's public debut as a validation event.

The bottom line

OpenAI's potential IPO delay is not just one company's calendar decision. In this market, OpenAI is not just a company. It is collateral, validation, and a sentiment gauge all at once β€” and delaying its public debut makes everyone else's bet harder to value.

The sharp drops in SoftBank, Oracle, and CoreWeave show how tightly the fortunes of the sector are bound together. Whether OpenAI lists this year or next, the episode is a reminder that the AI trade rests on a web of interlocking bets, and doubt in one corner ripples through all of them.

Sources