SpaceX Prices Tonight at $1.75 Trillion, Setting Up the Most-Watched Market Open in Years.

SpaceX prices its IPO after the close tonight. The stock is expected to begin trading Friday on Nasdaq under SPCX.

That would make it more than twice the size of Saudi Aramco's record 2019 offering and roughly triple Alibaba's US listing — the largest IPO in history by a significant margin.

But after a week when the Nasdaq fell, Oracle's financing plan rattled AI infrastructure investors, and sentiment toward premium valuations shifted, the real question is bigger than the deal size.

If SPCX opens strong and holds its gains, investors may read it as proof that the AI-and-space premium is still alive. If it fades, it could reinforce the idea that the most speculative part of this market has started to cool.

This is not just a Musk headline. It is a market signal.

What investors are actually buying

SpaceX is not one business. It is three bets stacked together.

Starlink is the cash engine. The satellite internet division generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025, with over 10 million subscribers globally.

This is the part of SpaceX that makes the valuation at least arguable. It is profitable, growing fast, and has no comparable vertically integrated competitor at its current scale.

The launch business is the moat. SpaceX launched 83% of the mass sent to orbit from Earth in 2025, having reduced launch costs by more than 95% over a decade through Falcon 9 reusability. The position is real. Revenue growth here is slower than Starlink.

xAI is the complication. SpaceX merged with Musk's AI startup in February. xAI adds optionality — Grok, Colossus data centers, AI infrastructure — but it also adds a business burning roughly $10 billion annually that is years from profitability.

Musk will retain over 82% voting control after the offering. The deal uses a fixed $135 price — bypassing the usual IPO range process and turning the roadshow into less of a price-discovery exercise and more of a sales pitch. The stock's market verdict arrives entirely on Friday morning.

The valuation fight

Morningstar pegs fair value at roughly $780 billion — less than half the IPO target — arguing only Starlink is genuinely profitable and that xAI represents a material risk of value destruction. ARK Invest projects the company could reach $2.5 trillion in enterprise value by 2030. The spread between those two estimates is the trade.

Up to 30% of shares may be allocated to individual investors — at least triple the 5% to 10% typical of standard deals. The deal is reportedly about twice oversubscribed.

The ASML appearance and what it reveals

Musk is also appearing virtually today at an ASML event to discuss Terafab, his proposed chip manufacturing project in Texas.

ASML matters because its lithography machines are essential to producing the world's most advanced chips. Terafab, developed in collaboration with Intel, would aim to supply Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI.

The likely strategic read: a strong debut would strengthen Musk's capital-markets hand considerably for funding the Terafab buildout and xAI's ongoing compute needs. The IPO and the semiconductor ambitions are part of the same strategy.

The trading setup

The lockup structure is tiered, not uniform. Some shareholder supply may begin coming loose before year-end, while Musk and certain major holders are reportedly locked up for 366 days. The staggered structure is designed to avoid one single lockup cliff — but the scale of potential insider supply will be enormous whenever it comes.

Investors may get a cleaner read on the business once SpaceX reports as a public company. A cleaner read on supply-and-demand trading will take longer.

The broader signal

SPCX is landing in a nervous market.

Tech has sold off. AI infrastructure stocks have been under pressure. Investors are suddenly questioning premium valuations again.

That makes Friday's debut bigger than one company. A strong open that holds would suggest risk appetite is still alive. A flat open or fade would suggest the market is getting pickier about even the biggest growth stories.

The bottom line

The bull case: Starlink is a real, profitable, growing business, and the rest is optionality the market is paying a reasonable premium for.

The bear case: $1.75 trillion prices in a future that has not arrived yet, into a debt-financed AI buildout that is still years from profitability.

Trading begins at 9:30am Friday. Everyone is watching because the answer matters well beyond SpaceX.

Sources

• SpaceX plans to set IPO price at $135 per share (Reuters): https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/spacex-plans-raise-75-billion-ipo-135-per-share-source-says-2026-06-03/
• Musk to speak at ASML event ahead of SpaceX IPO (Reuters): https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/musk-speak-chip-tool-giant-asml-event-ahead-spacex-ipo-2026-06-11/
• How SpaceX's tiered lockup aims to help post-IPO trading (Morningstar): https://global.morningstar.com/en-nd/stocks/how-spacexs-tiered-lockup-aims-help-post-ipo-trading
• SpaceX targets $135 IPO price at valuation of $1.77 trillion (CNBC): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/spacex-ipo-stock-price-roadshow-musk.html
• SpaceX IPO guide: S-1 breakdown and valuation (BitMEX): https://www.bitmex.com/blog/spacex-ipo-guide