Tech Earnings Are Back in Charge, but the Market Is Still Walking a Tightrope

Markets closed Thursday looking a little bruised. Software weakness, Middle East tension, and renewed oil anxiety reminded investors that this rally still has pressure points. But by Friday morning, the tone had shifted again. Strong results from Intel and SAP helped pull the market’s attention back toward company fundamentals, especially the one theme investors still cannot quit: artificial intelligence.

That does not mean the all-clear siren has sounded. Oil is still elevated, the Israel-Lebanon cease-fire was extended but remains fragile, and U.S.-Iran uncertainty is still sitting in the background. What changed is the market’s immediate obsession. For the moment, investors seem less focused on whether geopolitics can derail the rally and more focused on whether earnings can justify it.

That makes this a revealing moment. The market is not ignoring risk. It is asking whether profits, AI demand, and Big Tech guidance can overpower it. So far Friday morning, tech is trying to answer yes, but the answer still depends heavily on the next wave of megacap earnings.

Stock of Interest Today: TeraWulf (WULF)

TeraWulf is no longer just a bitcoin mining story. It is increasingly being valued as an AI infrastructure and power-access story, which is exactly why the stock has become more interesting in a market obsessed with data centers, electricity constraints, and hyperscaler demand.

The company has been building out its high-performance computing and AI data center platform, and its recent Kentucky and Maryland acquisitions meaningfully expand the runway. TeraWulf said those two brownfield infrastructure deals add roughly 1.5 gigawatts of capacity, with the Hawesville, Kentucky site offering about 480 megawatts of existing power availability and the Maryland Morgantown site carrying a path to as much as 1 gigawatt over time. That matters because in the AI boom, power is quickly becoming as important as chips. A data center company with near-term power access is not just selling space. It is selling scarcity.

The bullish case is that TeraWulf can convert that power portfolio into contracted, long-duration AI infrastructure revenue. The risk is execution. These are large, capital-intensive projects, and investors will want proof that leases, financing, buildouts, and customer commitments arrive on schedule. Still, if the Kentucky site is contracted in the coming months as expected by some analysts, the market may begin valuing TeraWulf less like a volatile crypto-adjacent miner and more like an emerging AI power platform.

Current price: $20.37

Analyst expectation: $26.00

Five Market Signals Investors Should Be Watching Now

The bigger picture is that Friday’s early trading is not just about one chip stock or one software report. It is about a market trying to decide what matters most again.

For much of the past two months, oil and Middle East headlines have had an unusually strong grip on risk appetite. Now earnings season is forcing investors to look back under the hood. That shift is healthy, but it also raises the bar. If fundamentals are back in charge, the companies leading the market need to prove the fundamentals are actually strong enough.

1) Earnings Are Overtaking the Iran Trade

The market’s attention has shifted from pure geopolitical reaction to earnings digestion. Reuters reported Friday morning that S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were set for a firmer open as hopes around possible U.S.-Iran talks combined with strong corporate earnings to improve sentiment. Intel’s results were a major driver, and the broader chip group caught a bid as investors refocused on AI-related demand.

That is a meaningful change. When markets are controlled by oil shocks and war headlines, stock picking gets harder because even good companies can get dragged around by macro fear. When earnings regain control, investors can start separating winners from passengers. That does not remove geopolitical risk, but it gives the market something more constructive to trade on.

The key takeaway is not “buy everything.” It is “quality matters more again.” Companies with real revenue growth, strong balance sheets, pricing power, and AI-linked demand have a better chance of being rewarded. Companies relying on vibes, cost cuts, or vague long-term narratives may have a harder time keeping up.

2) Intel and SAP Are Repairing the Tech Mood

Intel delivered the kind of report that changes the tone quickly. Reuters said the stock surged after the company reported unexpectedly strong CPU demand tied to AI services, with the move potentially pushing Intel above its dot-com-era peak. The important detail is that this was not just another GPU story. Intel’s strength came from demand for server CPUs used in AI data centers, suggesting that the AI buildout is widening beyond the most obvious winners.

SAP helped from the software side. The company beat first-quarter profit expectations, with cloud demand driving results and cloud revenue coming in ahead of estimates. That matters because software had just taken a hit from disappointing reports from IBM and ServiceNow. A solid SAP report gives investors a reason to believe the entire enterprise software complex is not cracking, even if the market is becoming more selective.

Together, Intel and SAP tell a cleaner story: AI spending is still moving through the system, but not evenly. Semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and mission-critical enterprise software still have support. The weaker spots are companies where expectations were too high or where AI disruption threatens old business models faster than it creates new revenue.

3) The Lebanon Cease-Fire Helps, but Oil Risk Has Not Disappeared

President Trump said the Israel-Lebanon cease-fire would be extended by three weeks, giving markets one less immediate flashpoint to panic over. Reuters also reported that the leaders of Lebanon and Israel could potentially meet at the White House during that extended window. That is why oil’s reaction was more muted than investors might have expected given the broader regional stress.

But this is not a clean peace dividend. Reuters separately reported that a Hezbollah lawmaker called the cease-fire “meaningless” in light of continued Israeli actions in southern Lebanon. That is exactly the kind of detail markets can temporarily look past until they suddenly cannot. The extension lowers near-term pressure, but it does not eliminate the possibility of renewed escalation.

For investors, the signal is simple: do not treat lower anxiety as the same thing as lower risk. Energy stocks, airlines, transports, industrials, and consumer names remain exposed to oil volatility in different ways. If crude stays elevated, margins and inflation expectations remain under pressure. If crude cools because tensions ease, the market may rotate away from defensive energy exposure and back toward growth. Either way, oil is still a macro lever, not background noise.

4) Big Tech Earnings Are the Next Major Test

Intel and SAP gave the market a lift, but next week is the real exam. Reuters noted that Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon report on April 29, followed by Apple on April 30. That cluster matters because these companies carry enormous weight in the major indexes and sit at the center of the AI spending debate.

The question is no longer whether Big Tech is spending on AI. Everyone knows it is. The question is whether that spending is producing enough revenue growth, margin durability, and cloud demand to justify the valuations attached to these stocks. Reuters has reported that the largest tech firms are expected to keep increasing AI spending sharply, which means investors will be looking for evidence that capex is turning into returns, not just bigger data center bills.

That is why Friday’s optimism still feels conditional. A strong Intel report can support the AI infrastructure story. A strong SAP report can stabilize software sentiment. But if Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, or Apple disappoint on guidance, the market could quickly remember how concentrated this rally has become.

5) Fundamentals Are Back, Which Means Stock Selection Matters More

Barron’s quoted David Laut, chief investment officer at Kerux Financial, saying that “fundamentals are back” as earnings season gets underway. That line captures the current pivot nicely. For weeks, investors have been trading around oil, war headlines, and interest-rate expectations. Now companies have to show what they can actually earn in a more complicated world.

That is a better setup for disciplined investors, but not necessarily an easier one. If the market starts caring about fundamentals again, then weak guidance matters more. Margin pressure matters more. Cash flow matters more. Balance sheets matter more. In other words, the market may still rise, but it may stop lifting everything equally.

The practical move is to avoid treating “tech is strong” as a complete investment thesis. The better question is which companies are turning AI demand into real revenue, which ones are protecting margins, and which ones are simply using AI language to keep investor attention. The difference between those groups can be massive.

Bottom Line

Friday’s market is trying to move from fear back to fundamentals. That is a healthier place to be, but it is not a risk-free one.

Intel and SAP helped remind investors that the AI trade still has real demand behind it. TeraWulf shows how that demand is spreading into power, infrastructure, and data center capacity. The Lebanon cease-fire extension helped cool one source of anxiety, but it did not erase oil risk. And next week’s megacap earnings could either validate the rally or expose how much hope is already priced in.

The market is not calm because the risks are gone. It is calmer because earnings have given investors something better to focus on. That is progress, but it also means the next move depends less on headlines and more on proof.

Sources:

Market Munchies and Mode Mobile communications are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation, solicitation, or research report relating to any investment strategy, security, or digital asset. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Any information contained in this commentary does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. There is no guarantee that any statements or opinions provided herein will prove to be correct.